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Home / Drills / Break-Even Bluffs
What this fixes

My bluffs are guesses. I fire without knowing what they need to work.

Know what your bluff needs before you fire it. Every bluff is a price. Bet into a pot and you are laying yourself odds on how often it has to work, and most players fire without ever knowing the number. This drill turns bet sizing into a success rate you can read instantly, which changes both how often you bluff and how big.

LEVEL 2 OF 4~4 MIN A SESSIONFREE QUESTIONS DAILY
♠ Break-Even BluffsA REAL QUESTION · TRY IT
Every drill runs all four. Pick the one you would actually be training.

The pot is £90 and you bluff £60 on the river. How often must villain fold?

The drill

This is what a rep looks like

drills.poker · break-even bluffs
The Break-Even Bluffs in the app
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Break-even success rate for any bet size, before the chips leave your hand

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Why a small bluff needs to work far less often, and what that does to sizing

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Semi-bluffs, where your equity when called changes the whole sum

How it works

Spot. Answer. The working. Next.

Every rep is the same four seconds of pressure, on purpose. Accuracy and speed feed your streak, and wrong answers come back at the end of the set.

01 · The spotA real hand, a real price, and the clock already running.

A real hand, a real price, and the clock already running.

02 · Your answerPick the equity, make the decision. No hints on the top tier.

Pick the equity, make the decision. No hints on the top tier.

03 · The workingRight or wrong, the full arithmetic is laid out. Wrong answers come back at the end of the set.

Right or wrong, the full arithmetic is laid out. Wrong answers come back at the end of the set.

The loop shown in the Pot Odds Trainer. Every drill runs the same way: spot, answer, working, next.

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Break-Even Bluffs is on the free plan with daily free questions. Pro removes the cap on this and every other drill.

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Questions

About Break-Even Bluffs

Does a smaller bluff really need less?

Yes, and by more than most players expect. A third-pot bluff needs to work about 25 percent of the time against 50 percent for a pot-sized bet.

What about when I get called and still win?

That is a semi-bluff, and the higher tiers fold your equity when called into the same sum.

Is this only for river bluffs?

The maths is cleanest on the river because nothing comes after it, and the drill starts there before adding earlier streets.